The outbreak of the global epidemic, presumably, has had a great impact on import and export trade, which has also led to a sustained recession in the global economy. However, in the midst of this epidemic, China is also shining brightly in the world.

Over the years, the progress of China's science and technology has attracted the attention of all countries in the world, and there are a lot of goods exported by China. It can be said that all countries in the world have made in China. Up to now, the works created by China show that there are more and more original Chinese goods, not just cheap exported goods.

It can be said that China has become one of the top exporting countries in manufacturing and industry, some of which are processed on behalf of others, and some are self built. Before, China was called "the world's OEM", but now such a name is no longer there. After all, China's rapid rise in manufacturing, but also has its own products. It is no longer just the existence of processing for people, a synonym for cheap labor, which tells us that China's strength is rising.

In this epidemic, China has managed and controlled the epidemic very well, which is an example of the world's epidemic control. Compared with the world, the epidemic situation is really much better. It is afraid to place import orders from countries with serious outbreaks, and it has a crush on China, a country with guaranteed Technology and safety.

In addition, due to the impact of the epidemic, the global manufacturing industry began to stagnate, and factories in many places could not resume normal work. Only China could keep up with the progress of resumption of work and production, and had a large-scale recovery.

As a result, other countries are short of resources.

While China's state-owned factories can produce, what should we do in the face of huge global industrial orders? So they found China and invested orders in China one after another. In the past two years, the order volume of China's export has risen sharply, and the order arrangement is full without any rest, especially in the export of auto parts.

The export of auto parts can be said to have doubled. The order growth rate in the past two years has increased by 900%. It can be seen that China has really increased a lot in the export orders of auto parts. This speed can be called "riding a rocket".

1. The prosperity of new energy vehicle industry remains unchanged

In recent years, the demand for new energy vehicles is hot, and the new energy sector has been favored by the market and has become one of the main investment tracks. According to the disclosure of China Automobile Association, the sales volume of domestic new energy vehicles from January to September was 2.157 million, an increase of 185.3%, of which the sales volume in September was 357000, an increase of 148.4% year-on-year.

In this context, the reconstruction valuation of new energy vehicles. But judging from the current market situation, the whole vehicle sector and batteries in the industry? Plate? Average? Already? Fully exploited by the market. In fact, the single vehicle value and supporting relationship of a large number of parts enterprises are also being reconstructed, but the valuation has not been fully reflected before.

Statistics show that from the beginning of this year to September 30, the whole vehicle sector of the new energy industry increased by an average of more than 30%, while the average increase of the parts sector was only 10%. This time, the hot spot of the new energy industry has changed to the concept of parts manufacturing, which is a normal market rotation.

From the perspective of valuation, Shengang Securities believes that the valuation of the auto parts sector is in a reasonable position. The pe-ttm valuation of the auto parts sector is 24.75x (as of October 24, the research report issued a document), which is in the 60.55% quantile within five years, and is in a relatively reasonable range.

In addition, recently, rivian, Tesla's "rival", has risen sharply in the market, with a market value of more than $100 billion. The rapid growth of production and sales of new forces of car making at home and abroad, represented by Tesla, has driven the development of a number of domestic high-quality auto parts suppliers.

2. Alleviate the problem of core shortage + take the initiative to replenish the inventory of vehicles

Since this year, "lack of core" has become an industry consensus, which is also a problem that puzzles the automotive industry. As early as the beginning of this year, a number of car companies announced that they would stop production due to the lack of cores. In August and September, the rise of covid-19 cases led to the shutdown of chip factories in Malaysia and Vietnam, exacerbating the global chip shortage.

According to AFS data, as of October 10, the cumulative production reduction in the global auto market due to "core shortage" has reached 9.345 million. In September and October alone, Toyota was forced to cut production of more than 700000 vehicles.

However, after entering the fourth quarter, the problem of car core shortage is expected to be alleviated. On October 19, a spokesman for the Ministry of industry and information technology said that the shortage of automotive chips was expected to ease in the fourth quarter compared with the third quarter. Major European and American manufacturers have also said that the supply is improving and the problem of core shortage has been alleviated to a great extent.

With the increase of chip production capacity, many auto companies around the world began to resume normal production. The world's major auto manufacturers are preparing to increase their production capacity by 5% in December, and are preparing to equal the annual production capacity of 9million vehicles by the first quarter of next year.

At the same time, the inventory of the automotive industry reached a new low. According to the Automobile Circulation Association, the automobile inventory coefficient continued to decline in the third quarter. In September, the domestic automobile inventory coefficient was 1.24, which fell both year-on-year and month on month, reaching a new low in the year. Therefore, there is a strong demand for replenishing inventory.

With the improvement of the shortage of chips, the growth of the sales end will drive the sales of finished vehicles. If vehicle enterprises start the replenishment cycle, the demand for parts and components of finished vehicle enterprises is expected to rebound, which will drive the short-term prosperity of the industry to rebound.

3. Which circuit can new energy auto parts focus on?

It is estimated that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in 2021 and 2022 will be 16% and 23% respectively, and the corresponding sales volume will be 3.2 million and 5 million respectively.

New energy auto parts can focus on:

1. Battery field

2. Electric control field of motor

Intelligent cockpit field

3. Intelligent driving

4. Automotive electronics

5. Vehicle lightweight

6. Automobile thermal management